Every restaurant has a customer ceiling.
If you add 200 new customers a period and lose 10% of your base each period, you settle at 2,000 customers — no matter how long you keep going. The only way past it is lower churn, more new customers, or both. Enter your numbers to find your own ceiling.
Tell us about your restaurant
Estimates are fine. Each number below has a real-world example to guide you.
Count first-time customers only. Most independent restaurants add 80–400 new customers a month.
Churn is the share of customers who stop ordering each period. Takeout churn usually runs 8–15% a month.
Canadian takeout averages $30–$55 per order.
An active takeout customer orders about 1–2 times a month. Loyal regulars reach 3+.
2,000
200 new customers ÷ 10% churn per month
$84,000 in revenue per month at the ceiling
$1M a year
You reach 90% of the ceiling in about 22 months. After that, extra effort at the same churn rate barely moves the total.
Your ceiling = new customers per month ÷ churn rate. Revenue at the ceiling = customers × average order value × orders per month.
Move the ceiling
Only two things change your ceiling. Keeping more customers is almost always cheaper than buying new ones.
Loyalty rewards, SMS win-backs and review follow-ups are what pull churn down.
SEO, ads, referrals and review volume are what push new customers up.
Moving churn from 10% to 7.0% and new customers from 200 to 250 lifts your ceiling from 2,000 to 3,571 customers — +1,571 customers and +$792,000 a year.
How the base fills up
Ceiling today
2,000
$1M a year
Ceiling after changes
3,571
$1.8M a year
Extra revenue unlocked
+$792,000
Per year at the new ceiling
months to 90% of the ceiling
22
Starting from zero customers
Customers over time
Both curves flatten as they approach their ceiling. The dashed lines are the ceilings themselves — the base cannot cross them while churn stays the same.
Stretch the horizon to see how long it takes to settle at the ceiling.
Month by month
| month | Customers | Lost to churn | Net change | Revenue | After changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 200 | 0 | +200 | $8.4K | 250 |
| 2 | 380 | 20 | +180 | $16K | 483 |
| 3 | 542 | 38 | +162 | $22.8K | 699 |
| 4 | 688 | 54 | +146 | $28.9K | 900 |
| 5 | 819 | 69 | +131 | $34.4K | 1,087 |
| 6 | 937 | 82 | +118 | $39.4K | 1,261 |
| 7 | 1,043 | 94 | +106 | $43.8K | 1,422 |
| 8 | 1,139 | 104 | +96 | $47.8K | 1,573 |
| 9 | 1,225 | 114 | +86 | $51.5K | 1,713 |
| 10 | 1,303 | 123 | +77 | $54.7K | 1,843 |
| 11 | 1,372 | 130 | +70 | $57.6K | 1,964 |
| 12 | 1,435 | 137 | +63 | $60.3K | 2,076 |
| 13 | 1,492 | 144 | +56 | $62.6K | 2,181 |
| 14 | 1,542 | 149 | +51 | $64.8K | 2,278 |
| 15 | 1,588 | 154 | +46 | $66.7K | 2,369 |
| 16 | 1,629 | 159 | +41 | $68.4K | 2,453 |
| 17 | 1,666 | 163 | +37 | $70K | 2,531 |
| 18 | 1,700 | 167 | +33 | $71.4K | 2,604 |
| 19 | 1,730 | 170 | +30 | $72.7K | 2,672 |
| 20 | 1,757 | 173 | +27 | $73.8K | 2,735 |
| 21 | 1,781 | 176 | +24 | $74.8K | 2,793 |
| 22 | 1,803 | 178 | +22 | $75.7K | 2,848 |
| 23 | 1,823 | 180 | +20 | $76.6K | 2,899 |
| 24 | 1,840 | 182 | +18 | $77.3K | 2,946 |
| 25 | 1,856 | 184 | +16 | $78K | 2,989 |
| 26 | 1,871 | 186 | +14 | $78.6K | 3,030 |
| 27 | 1,884 | 187 | +13 | $79.1K | 3,068 |
| 28 | 1,895 | 188 | +12 | $79.6K | 3,103 |
| 29 | 1,906 | 190 | +10 | $80K | 3,136 |
| 30 | 1,915 | 191 | +9 | $80.4K | 3,167 |
| 31 | 1,924 | 192 | +8 | $80.8K | 3,195 |
| 32 | 1,931 | 192 | +8 | $81.1K | 3,221 |
| 33 | 1,938 | 193 | +7 | $81.4K | 3,246 |
| 34 | 1,944 | 194 | +6 | $81.7K | 3,269 |
| 35 | 1,950 | 194 | +6 | $81.9K | 3,290 |
| 36 | 1,955 | 195 | +5 | $82.1K | 3,309 |
The ceiling is arithmetic, not opinion. More marketing at the same churn rate just gets you to the same ceiling faster. Lower churn is the only lever that raises it without spending more on acquisition.
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See how we lower churn
A 15-minute walkthrough of loyalty rewards, win-back SMS and review automation — using your own menu.
Book a free demoThese numbers are estimates based on what you enter and what we see across independent restaurants. They are not a guarantee of performance.
