Churn Risk

A predicted probability — between 0% and 100% — that a customer will not order again, based on how long it's been since their last order relative to how often they normally come back.

How it's calculated

Each customer's score uses an exponential-decay model: the longer the gap since their last order relative to their personal cadence, the higher the score climbs. New customers with only one order use a sensible default cadence until they build history.

Risk bands

• Low — Recent orderer, well within their normal cadence.
• Medium — Slightly overdue. A nudge often brings them back.
• High — Significantly overdue. Win-back territory.
• Critical — Far past their usual gap. Likely lost without an incentive.